Markets in a Nutshell
March 1, 2010 Issue
Stocks pulled back slightly last week. The Dow fell 0.7% and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% - both are down 1.0% for the year, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.3% and is down 1.4% for the year. Stocks were up for the month of February, with the Dow up 2.6%, the S&P 500 up 2.8% and the Nasdaq up 4.2%. Bonds continue to be up for the year with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index up 1.9%.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke
testified before the House Financial Services Committee this week. Seems
like everything he says now is all about setting the groundwork for what is
to come. It will be very interesting over the coming months (and years) to
watch the Fed and chairman Ben walk the fine line of undoing the actions the
Fed took to combat the financial crisis. If they can pull it off (and I’m
beginning to think they just might) it will be a wonderful lesson in
managing expectations.
Warren Buffett released his annual report to Berkshire Hathaway
shareholders yesterday, listing Berkshire’s biggest stock holdings and their
values as of December 31, 2009. The biggest winners? Coke (up more
than $11 billion over cost), followed by American Express and
Proctor & Gamble (both up almost $5 billion). The biggest losers?
ConocoPhillips and Kraft, both down almost a billion dollars from
what Buffett paid for them. Oh well, not even the Oracle of Omaha is
perfect. But who knows….Buffett is a “buy and hold” investor – it’s very
possible that these stocks will pay off for him in the long run. I
certainly wouldn’t bet against him….
Ever heard of Thomas Bracket Reed? He was speaker of the U.S. House
of Representatives from 1889-1891 and again from 1895-1899. He was also
known as “Czar Reed” for his efforts in overcoming minority opposition,
doing things like locking the chamber doors to prevent congressmen from
escaping a vote, and then searching out those same congressmen when they
were hiding (under desks, etc.) to count them for getting a vote through.
And we think things are bad now.
Reed once said of some of his fellow congressmen, “They never open their
mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge.” That
seemed especially applicable this week, when every time you turned on the
radio or TV it seemed like another hearing or summit was being broadcast
allowing many of our elected officials to put their ineptitude on display.
I’ve never understood the term “congressional hearing” - seems like they’re
always talking and not doing a whole lot of listening.
Wrapping up on a
lighter note, what’s ahead for the economy? Just keep an eye on the
men’s underwear economic indicator. Put forth by Alan Greenspan (before
he became Fed chairman), the theory was that men’s underwear sales moved
pretty much in a flat line, and any spike up or down would be an indicator
of which way the economy might move. In 2008, men’s underwear sales dropped
12%, and then in the first part of 2009, men’s underwear sales were up
4.8%. Let’s hope those sales keep going up!